EAST LANSING, Mich. — With Michigan's peak summer season beginning on Memorial Day weekend, Michigan travelers are once again confronting record-high gasoline prices.

However, the Michigan State University Tourism Center indicates that most Michigan tourists will take high gasoline prices in stride and not significantly alter their summer travel plans, according to Don Holecek, director of the center.

“Nearly 70 percent of Michigan's tourists are Michigan residents, while most of the others are residents of Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin and Ontario,” Holecek said. “So, higher gasoline prices add a relatively small amount to the overall costs of a Michigan vacation.

“But, even a relatively small increase in travel costs will force families on tight budgets and many others to change their travel behavior to offset higher gas prices.”

The changes in behavior that result from high gasoline prices will benefit some regions in Michigan at the expense of others. Michigan also will benefit from travelers who forego long distance trips due to higher air travel costs and crowded planes, the weak U.S. dollar and higher prices for lodging in destinations where demand is higher than in Michigan, Holecek noted.

The MSU Tourism Center released its forecast for Michigan's tourism industry in March. (See www.newsroom.msu.edu/site/indexer/3038/content.htm.) The forecast was for travel volume to increase by 1 percent to 2 percent compared to last year with sales increasing by 3 percent to 4 percent largely due to price hikes including a modest increase in gas prices.

Holecek has not observed any trends in key variables underlying the center's forecast that would suggest changing his expectations for the industry's performance this year. But if gas prices continue to spiral up to $4 per gallon or if supply interruptions occur resulting in periodic closures of gas stations, the effect on tourism in some regions of the state will be negative.

Should gasoline prices stabilize and begin to fall as they typically do as the summer season progresses, the modest growth projected for Michigan's tourism industry may not materialize, Holecek said.

“Industry performance is especially sensitive to weather and economic conditions,” Holecek said. “Summer travelers respond positively to warm and sunny weather patterns which would boost tourism industry sales above MSU's modest expectations. And, positive economic surprises – especially in Michigan – would provide consumers with more money to spend on travel and put them in the mode to increase their spending on discretionary purchases, including tourism products and services.

“The summer season is relatively short here in Michigan, and it takes a lot of bad news to keep Michigan and neighboring state's residents from traveling to enjoy all that Michigan has to offer its tourists.”

For more information on the Web, visit www.tourismcenter.msu.edu. And for a podcast related to this topic, visit www.spartanpodcast.com/?p=238.

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